Fascial dehiscence: predictable complication? Development and validation of a risk model: a retrospective cohort study

Purpose Fascial dehiscence is still an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the postoperative period of abdominal surgery. Different authors have sought to identify risk factors for this entity. Two risk scores have been developed, but they include postoperative variables, which hinder preventive decision-making during the early surgical period. Our aim is to identify preoperative and intraoperative risk factors for fascial dehiscence and to develop and validate a risk prediction score that allows taking preventive behaviors. Methods All adult patients, with no prior history of abdominal surgery, who underwent midline laparotomy by a general surgery division between January 2009 and December 2019 were included. Recognized preoperative risk factors for fascial dehiscence were evaluated in a univariate analysis and subsequently entered in a multivariate stepwise logistic regression model. A prognostic risk model was developed and posteriorly validated by bootstrapping. This study was conducted following the STROBE statement. Results A total of 594 patients were included. Fascial dehiscence was detected in 41 patients (6.9%). On multivariate analysis, eight factors were identified: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), immunosuppression, smoking, prostatic hyperplasia, anticoagulation use, sepsis, and overweight. The resulting score ranges from 1 to 8. Scores above 3 are predictive of 18% risk of dehiscence with a sensitivity of 70% and specificity of 80% (ROC 0.88). Conclusions We present a new preoperative prognostic score to identify patients with a high risk of fascial dehiscence. It can be a guide for decision-making that allows taking intraoperative preventive measures. External validation is still required.