Ecological determinants and risk areas of Striga hermonthica infestation in western Kenya under changing climate

Striga hermonthica (Del.) Benth is a parasitic weed that is damaging major cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Although Striga is recognised as an agricultural scourge, there is limited information available indicating the extent of its growth and spread as impacted by the changing climate in Kenya. This study investigated the impact of current climate conditions and projected future (2050) climate change on the infestation of Striga hermonthica in the western Kenya region. Specifically, the study aimed to predict Striga hermonthica habitat suitability in five counties in the western Kenya region through using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and bioclimatic, soil, topographic and land use, and land cover (LULC) variables. Striga hermonthica geolocations were collected and collated and ecological niche models were developed to determine the habitat suitability. The results showed that approximately 1767 km(2) (10% of the total study area) is currently highly suitable for Striga hermonthica occurrence. The future projections showed a range between 2106 km(2) (19% of the total study area) and 2712 km(2) (53% of the total study area) at the minimum carbon (RCP 2.6) and the maximum carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5) respectively. Elevation, annual precipitation, LULC, temperature seasonality and soil type were determined to be the most influential ecological predictor variables for Striga hermonthica establishment. The study revealed the importance of using climate, soil, topographic and LULC variables when evaluating agricultural production constraints such as Striga's prevalence. The methodology used in this study should be tested in other Striga affected areas.