Risk and Impacts Associated with Marine Carbon Sink Projects: An Example from Guangdong, China

This paper aims to measure the risk and impact of the marine carbon sink project in Guangdong, China. This measurement increases the investors' willingness to participate in development and operation of such projects, and promotes the transformation of a low-carbon economy and society. This research employs triangular fuzzy number and Structural Equation Model to develop the risk measurement model of the marine carbon sink project. The net present value and risk equivalent methods measure the impact of risk factors on the project value and investment decision of the representative project in China. The results showed that: (1) there are certain risks in developing marine carbon sequestration projects, including policy, natural, market, and human behavior risks. The comprehensive risk value is 0.444. (2) Among the different types of marine carbon sink risks, the large ones are those caused by storm surges, invasion of alien species, and unknown ownership of marine carbon sink. (3) The risk of marine carbon sequestration reduces the profitability of its projects. (4) Compared with the traditional net present value method, the risk equivalent method is more in line with the development and operation of marine carbon sink projects. Based on this, combined with the risk characteristics and potential factors of marine carbon sequestration projects, and to promote their sustainable development, this paper has the following suggestions: (1) Strengthen policy evaluation and regulation, and formulate policies and measures in line with the development stage of marine carbon sequestration trading. (2) Strengthen the early warning of natural disasters and formulate targeted disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief plans. (3) Strengthen the dynamic supervision of marine carbon sequestration transactions and formulate emergency plans for market transaction risks. (4) Improve public participation and establish a reward and punishment mechanism for human behavior risk prevention and control.