Towards more sustainable diets: Insights from food production responses to diet transitions in China

Similar to most middle-income countries, residents' dietary patterns are continuously changing in China. However, their future development directions (for instance, to a more sustainable diet) and impacts on national food production systems remain uncertain. This study links a diets driver module to a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) framework to identify potential diet changes and the consequent food production responses. The results show that China would shift its dietary structure towards a high consumption of vegetables, fruits and animal-source foods in 'conventional paths', which are a continuation of previous variation trends. This is likely to induce a rapid expansion in the yields of major foods during the period from 2018 to 2030, following which this increase would slow down. However, there would be a considerable decrease in staple foods, meat and egg intakes, as well as a sharp increase in dairy demand when diets shift towards the targets put forth in the Chinese Dietary Guideline. Under this shock, most food production activities would decrease in scale and the 'cereal-pork' agricultural priority would be diminished. These findings also stress the importance of synergy between the two endpoints of the food system and potential challenges facing the shift to sustainable diets.