A Multi-mRNA Prognostic Signature for Anti-TNFα Therapy Response in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Background: Anti-TNF-alpha (anti-TNFα) therapies have transformed the care and management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, they are expensive and ineffective in greater than 50% of patients, and they increase the risk of infections, liver issues, arthritis, and lymphoma. With 1.6 million Americans suffering from IBD and global prevalence on the rise, there is a critical unmet need in the use of anti-TNFα therapies: a test for the likelihood of therapy response. Here, as a proof-of-concept, we present a multi-mRNA signature for predicting response to anti-TNFα treatment to improve the efficacy and cost-to-benefit ratio of these biologics. Methods: We surveyed public data repositories and curated four transcriptomic datasets (n = 136) from colonic and ileal mucosal biopsies of IBD patients (pretreatment) who were subjected to anti-TNFα therapy and subsequently adjudicated for response. We applied a multicohort analysis with a leave-one-study-out (LOSO) approach, MetaIntegrator, to identify significant differentially expressed (DE) genes between responders and non-responders and then used a greedy forward search to identify a parsimonious gene signature. We then calculated an anti-TNFα response (ATR) score based on this parsimonious gene signature to predict responder status and assessed discriminatory performance via an area-under-receiver operating-characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: We identified 324 significant DE genes between responders and non-responders. The greedy forward search yielded seven genes that robustly distinguish anti-TNFα responders from non-responders, with an AUROC of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.70–1). The Youden index yielded a mean sensitivity of 91%, mean specificity of 76%, and mean accuracy of 86%. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that there is a robust transcriptomic signature for predicting anti-TNFα response in mucosal biopsies from IBD patients prior to treatment initiation. This seven-gene signature should be further investigated for its potential to be translated into a predictive test for clinical use.