Research trends and gaps in climate change impacts and adaptation potentials in major crops

Crop adaptation to climate change is critical for ensuring food security. We systematically reviewed the projected impacts of climate change and adaptation potentials to identify gaps in crop adaptation research. We screened 203 studies of four major crops published between 2021 and 2022. Recent scholarship has increasingly studied sudden yield losses, but the capacity of crop models to reproduce the impacts of extreme events still needs to be improved. Grain quality has rarely been considered. Only four adaptation options accounted for 90% of all options tested. Adaptation potentials, defined as the difference between yield impacts with and without adaptation, averaged 4-5% per degree of warming, but their effectiveness in risk reduction was significantly smaller in the currently warmer regions. The effectiveness of adaptation needs to be assessed using various indicators, including profitability and environmental impact. More adaptation options tailored to each region need to be assessed locally.