Late cardiac events after allogeneic stem cell transplant: incidence, risk factors, and impact on overall survival

Background There is limited data on the impact of cardiac disease on long term outcomes of allogeneic stem cell transplant (alloSCT). Our study aims to describe the incidence of late cardiac events after alloSCT, identify risk factors for developing a late cardiac event, and illustrate the impact of late cardiac events on overall survival. Methods Patients who underwent alloSCT from 2007 to 2017 and survived more than 1 year after transplant ( N = 804) were included. Gray’s sub-distribution methods, while accounting for death as a competing risk, were used to calculate the cumulative incidence of late cardiac events. Univariate regression models based on Gray’s sub-distribution were fitted to assess the potential predictive effects of baseline characteristics on the risk of developing any late cardiac events. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the association between late cardiac events and overall survival. Results The cumulative incidence of a late cardiac event at 5 years after transplant was 22% (95% CI 19–25%). The most frequent cardiac event was a decline in LVEF to < 45% with a cumulative incidence of 9% (95% CI 7–11%). Patients were at significantly increased hazard of developing a late cardiac event if they had a history of congestive heart failure prior to alloSCT (HR 4.53, 95% CI 2.57–7.97, p -value < 0.001), a decline in LVEF to < 45% (HR 3.95, 95% CI 2.09–7.47, p -value < 0.001) or cerebral vascular accident (HR 3.13, 95% CI 1.38–7.06, p-value 0.004). Transplant characteristics such as primary disease, donor type, use of TBI, myeloablative conditioning regimen or tyrosine kinase inhibitor had no significant association with late cardiac events. Almost all cardiac events demonstrated a significantly increased risk of death. This hazard was the highest in patients who experienced an atrial arrhythmia (HR 10.6, 95% CI 7.7–14.6). Conclusion Adverse cardiac events are relatively common late after alloSCT with identifiable risk factors such as medical comorbidities prior to transplant and are associated with a negative impact on overall survival.