A novel evolutionary analysis model for social collaborative design ecosystem based on information entropy

Social collaborative design rooted in online platforms has emerged as a new paradigm for product innovation, with open and dynamic design elements bringing about external design resources and internal fluctuations. To guarantee sustainable operation of the design system, assessing the impact of the uncertainty of the external environment and randomness of the internal organization on the efficiency and stability of the system’s operation is essential. To that end, this paper proposes a quantitative evolutionary analysis model based on information entropy theory to assess the benefits and drawbacks of system evolution by measuring the degree of development and harmony of the system, as well as to anticipate future evolutionary trajectories using a classical time-series prediction model. The accuracy and validity of the model were verified using 794,509 design data points accumulated over 10 years on the Zhubajie platform, the largest social collaborative design platform in China. In summary, our study provides a method for stakeholders to evaluate the evolutionary trend of the design ecosystem. Platform managers can utilize this model for controlling the operating state of the system to ensure safe and effective operation.