SIR model for the spread of COVID-19: A case study

Ayoob Salimipour,Toktam Mehraban,Hevi Seerwan Ghafour,Noreen Izza Arshad,M. J. Ebadi

Operations Research Perspectives（2023）

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摘要

In this article, we study the spread pattern of the epidemic of COVID-19 disease from the point of view of mathematical modeling. Considering that this virus follows the basic rules of epidemic disease transmission, we use the SIR model to show the spread process of this disease in Iran. Then we estimate the primary reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in Iran by matching an epidemic model with the data of reported cases.

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关键词

Epidemic,COVID-19,Effective reproduction number,SIR model,Monte Carlo simulation

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