Calculation of Instantaneous Reliability of Grain Structure under Small Samples

Under the condition of small sample, the performance parameters' interval quantization and instantaneous reliability calculation of solid rocket motor grain structure are researched. Two important mechanical properties of material: Relaxation modulus and Poisson's ratio are obtained by experiments of grain material. Since the data of parameters obtained are a small sample, the method of gray theory is used to mine the experimental data. It realizes the uncertainty quantitative analysis of grain material performance parameters and obtains the quantitative interval of performance parameters. Considering that the evidence theory can directly attribute probabilistic mass to the set or interval, the instantaneous reliability of grain structure is analyzed based on the evidence theory. By establishing the relationship between failure surface and the frame of discernment, and using the belief function and plausibility function to obtain the upper and lower bound probability distribution of structural reliability and failure probability, the instantaneous reliability probability interval of structure is obtained.