Research on the evolution of incentive mechanisms for urban deep decarbonization under the vision of carbon neutrality: A perspective of multi-agent embedded participation

Carbon Peak & Carbon Neutral (30-60) target is a major strategic decision for China's sustainable development in the new era, and the short-term deep decarbonization transition (DDT) of cities under this target vision is imperative. This study constructed a tripartite game model of urban DDT under the vision of carbon neutrality from the perspective of embedded participation of multiple subjects, analyzed the behavior strategy choice of relevant subjects and its evolution process by using the evolutionary game approach, and further simulated the influence of four types of driving policies on the system evolution by using Matlab software. The main findings are as follows. (1) The stable equilibrium point of stakeholders' behavioral strategies (e.g., active participation or limited participation) in the urban DDT process was influenced not only by their strategic tendencies, but also by the behavioral strategies of other relevant groups (2) Changes in stakeholders' initial willingness (i.e., the probability of choosing a particular strategy at the beginning). significantly affected the evolutionary trajectory of stakeholders' behavioral strategies in the urban DDT process. The evolutionary trajectory of the government's stabilization strategy under the low initial willingness scenario showed a tendency to evolve first toward an active guidance strategy and then gradually toward a limited guidance strategy. (3) Both subsidy and penalty policies had significant positive effects on enterprises' evolutionary trajectories, but their effects differed. The increase of policy subsidies could continuously push enterprises to converge to a stable strategy, while the in-crease of regulatory fines could push enterprises to converge to a stable strategy in the early stage of system evolution, and then the push effect gradually decreases. (4) Participation incentive policies and emission compensation policies affect the evolutionary trajectory of the behavioral strategies of the government and the public. When participation incentives increase, the government and the public would converge to the stabili-zation strategy quickly. Finally, targeted policy recommendations were made in order to provide reference for the government to formulate effective DDT policies.