Machine learning-based injury severity prediction of level 1 trauma center enrolled patients associated with car-to-car crashes in Korea

Injury prediction models enables to improve trauma outcomes for motor vehicle occupants in accurate decision-making and early transport to appropriate trauma centers. This study aims to investigate the injury severity prediction (ISP) capability in machine-learning analytics based on five-different regional Level 1 trauma center enrolled patients in Korea. We study car crash-related injury data of 1417 patients enrolled in the Korea In-Depth Accident Study database from January 2011 to April 2021. Severe injury classification was defined using an Injury Severity Score of 15 or greater. A planar crash was considered by excluding rollovers to compromise an accurate prediction. Furthermore, dissimilarities of the collision partner component based on vehicle segmentation were assumed for crash incompatibility. To handle class-imbalanced clinical datasets, we used four data-sampling techniques (i.e., class-weighting, resampling, synthetic minority oversampling, and adaptive synthetic sampling). Machine-learning analytics based on logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and a multilayer perceptron model were used for the evaluations. Each model was executed using five-fold cross-validation to solve overfitting consistent with the hyperparameters tuned to improve model performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.896. Additionally, the present ISP model showed an under-triage rate of 6.1%. The Delta-V, age, and Principal ~ were significant predictors. The results demonstrated that the data-balanced XGBoost model achieved a reliable performance on injury severity classification of emergency department patients. This finding considers ISP model selection, which affected prediction performance based on overall predictor variables.