Current & Future Photovoltaic System Impacts on City-Wide Grid Performance & Neighborhood Microgrids

An accurate understanding of the electric grid's performance subject to existing and future photovoltaic (PV) arrays requires a city-wide simulation of distribution and sub-transmission systems. This work used existing PV array locations and adoption predictions from past work as inputs to model PV integration in an entire city. Distribution and sub-transmission systems were combined into a single simulation environment that allowed for each to be emulated simultaneously. Simulations of PV adoptions at 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 levels were performed and the net power profiles and voltages were output. The 2020 year simulations used actual permit data to identify PV locations, and future years used predictions that assumed linear trends at different spatial regions. Assuming that adoptions follow the same linear adoption rate, the city's distribution grids won't see significant voltage violations until 2040 and 2050, where some areas of the grid had simulated maximum voltages above 1.05 PU. The sub-transmission simulation results showed very little change in system voltage over the next 30 years. When considering the distributed PVs' contribution to microgrid operations, most of the city will likely need more generation capabilities to power microgrids whose extents were defined by the maximum modularity community detection algorithm.