Spatial-temporal pattern, driving mechanism and optimization policies for embodied carbon emissions transfers in multi-regional tourism: Case study of provinces in China

Tourism is responsible for more than 10% of the global gross domestic product, the growth rate of China's tourism industry is one of the highest in the world. With the continuous prosperity of domestic tourism in China, tourism in China creates large amounts of embodied carbon emissions between regions according to its immense industrial infrastructure and multi-regional mobility. In the context of global climate change and China's "dual carbon target", the continuous monitoring and analysis of carbon emissions associated with tourism in China are becoming more pressing. This study applied the emissions embodied in the bilateral trade (EEBT) model and structure decomposition analysis (SDA) to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and driving mechanism of tourism embodied carbon transfers (CETT) between 30 provinces in China. It has been found that the CETT of 30 provinces in China between 1997 and 2012 increased from 33.652 Mt to 164.345 Mt, three times more than previously directly estimated, more provinces in China have become a "net destination" of CETT. Tourism risks becoming an "accelerator" of regional carbon emissions, because of the trend of carbon emissions growing faster than economic growth. Based on carbon-intensity analysis, the main driving forces of net CETT were explored: low-carbon technology of tourism products and services, tourist origin structure, and tourist market scale. Technology driving force and structure driving force reduced net CETT outflows by 64.98 Mt and 646.30 Mt, respectively, 1997 to 2012, while the scale driving force increased by 714.28 Mt. This study puts forward specific implements on the regulation and control of CETT in China's from tourism route, supply chain, and government regime by combining quantitative and qualitative methods. This study proposed a research framework of "measure-intensity-driver-regulation" for CETT and connected with the forefront of global climate change research, in order to effectively guide the low-carbon transformation and development of tourism with new tools and methods, and provide a reference for low-carbon green development in the post-pandemic era for the world.