Grid Development Stages and Saturation Load Forecasting based on Logistic Model

The saturation load prediction of electricity demand can determine the final scale of future grid development and electricity demand in a region, and guide the construction of the near-term grid with its long-term grid planning objectives, which can effectively reduce the cost of grid transformation and achieve the transformation and construction of the regional grid in a systematic and orderly manner in the region, and is of great significance to the coordinated development between regional planning, regional economy and the grid. This paper proposes a theory of load development history stages based on the logistic model and predicts the saturation load. Finally, an improved logistic model is used to study and analyse the case study, and the prediction and analysis of the saturation scale and time point of saturation are completed.