Estimating the incidence of breast cancer recurrence using administrative data

Background Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women, but most cancer registries do not capture recurrences. We estimated the incidence of local, regional, and distant recurrences using administrative data. Methods Patients diagnosed with stage I-III primary breast cancer in Ontario, Canada from 2013 to 2017 were included. Patients were followed until 31/Dec/2021, death, or a new primary cancer diagnosis. We used hospital administrative data (diagnostic and intervention codes) to identify local recurrence, regional recurrence, and distant metastasis after primary diagnosis. We used logistic regression to explore factors associated with developing a distant metastasis. Results With a median follow-up 67 months, 5,431/45,857 (11.8%) of patients developed a distant metastasis a median 23 (9, 42) months after diagnosis of the primary tumor. 1086 (2.4%) and 1069 (2.3%) patients developed an isolated regional or a local recurrence, respectively. Patients with distant metastatic disease had a median overall survival of 15.4 months (95% CI 14.4–16.4 months) from the time recurrence/metastasis was identified. In contrast, the median survival for all other patients was not reached. Patients were more likely to develop a distant metastasis if they had more advanced stage, greater comorbidity, and presented with symptoms ( p < 0.0001). Trastuzumab halved the risk of recurrence [OR 0.53 (0.45–0.63), p < 0.0001]. Conclusion Distant metastasis is not a rare outcome for patients diagnosed with breast cancer, translating to an annual incidence of 2132 new cases (17.8% of all breast cancer diagnoses). Overall survival remains high for patients with locoregional recurrences, but was poor following a diagnosis of a distant metastasis.