Serendipity of vehicle ownership restrictions: Beijing’s license plate lottery cultivates non-driving behavior

In the context of Beijing’s license plate lottery policy, we investigate the role of habit, induced by a long wait before winning the lottery, in shaping lottery participants’ choices of commuting mode. Based on individual-level surveys and econometric models, we find that after waiting for 26 months, which is the average queue time in Beijing’s license plate lottery, the probability of winners switching their commuting method to driving is reduced by 16%. This behavioral change has reduced Beijing’s annual vehicle mileage by 8.48 million kilometers and avoided 2,000 tons of CO2 emissions per year. The annual social welfare improvement is 7.21 million yuan (approximately $1.05 million). These findings shed light on the serendipity of vehicle ownership restrictions in shaping citizens’ non-driving commuting modes and call for multifaceted ex-post assessments of transport policies.