The temporal and spatial pattern evolution of land-use carbon emissions in China coastal regions and its response to green economic development

Carbon emissions based on land use change have attracted extensive attention from scholars, but the current land use carbon emission accounting model is still relatively rough. Despite the continuous promotion of China's ecological civilization strategy, whether green economic development promotes carbon emission reduction remains to be studied. This study uses the Exploratory Spatial-temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA) framework system to revise the land-use carbon emission accounting model; it integrates the NDVI adjustment index and systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns and evolutionary path characteristics of carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020 for 130 prefecture-level cities in the eastern coastal region of China, a high carbon emission region. The spatial econometric model is further used to explore the impact of green economy development on carbon emissions. The results show that the spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks in the eastern coastal cities demonstrates a year-on-year increase during the study period. The spatial distribution of carbon sources is higher in the north than in the south, and the economically developed regions are more elevated than less developed economic areas. Net carbon emissions show prominent spatial clustering characteristics. The south has a more stable internal spatial structure than the north, and the inland has a more stable internal spatial structure than the coast. Green economic development can significantly reduce carbon emission intensity and has a significant spatial spillover effect. The findings imply that policy-makers need to consider the spatial and temporal distribution and spatial correlation of carbon emissions among cities; they can achieve carbon emission reduction by formulating a more reasonable green economy development approach and implementing regional linkages.