A curious case of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2020: The influence of Barotropic Rossby Waves and the monsoon depressions

The seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over India has substantially depended on the synoptic-scale systems such as monsoon lows and depressions. India has received above-average rainfall during the 2020 summer monsoon season. Total 12 Low Pressure Areas (LPAs) formed in the north Indian Ocean during summer 2020 (in JJAS season). The significance of this monsoon season is that August 2020 received the highest all-India rainfall in the past 44 years since 1976. This is accompanied by around 50% of the total seasonal LPAs formed in August 2020, none of which intensified into a monsoon depression (MDs). This study attempts to understand the characteristic features of monsoon rainfall during August 2020 and explore the plausible mechanisms behind the LPAs not intensifying/concentrating as MDs. It is noted that the anomalous warming over the Northern Parts of the Arabian Sea (NPAS) resulted in increased convection over this region in August 2020, as a result, strong low-level convergence is observed. In addition to this convergence, strong northwesterly winds emanating from central Asia merged with the enhanced cross-equatorial monsoon flow. However, this strong flow over the Arabian Sea sheared/dissociated into two branches: one extending up to northwest (NW) India along the monsoon trough, another one diverging into an anticyclone over the south Bay of Bengal (SBOB), which reduced the horizontal shear there (Barotropic Instability). This anticyclone strength over the SBOB and its westward shift is determined by the western north Pacific (WNP) anticyclone. Our analysis suggests that due to the poor barotropic instability over the head BOB, LPAs could not develop into MDs. Additionally, upper level (200 hPa) barotropic Rossby wave in August 2020 remains stationary over South Central Asia and retrogressed with a northeast to southwest orientation. It determined the path of movement of the low-level disturbance beneath and affected the all-India rainfall by virtue of enhanced rainfall over NW & Western Ghats (WG) regions. The interplay of the barotropic Rossby wave alongside low-level anticyclone over the WNP accompanied by local conditions caused the above normal rainfall over India in August 2020, even though there are adverse dynamical conditions. We have also verified these mechanisms in Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) model simulations, analysis shows that model has a limited skill to simulate the changes in the monsoon rainfall and associated circulation and failed to capture the mid-latitude circulation impact on ISM rainfall.