Incidence and predictors of Escherichia coli producing extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL-Ec) in Queensland, Australia from 2010 to 2019: a population-based spatial analysis

The dissemination of Escherichia coli producing extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL-Ec) is evident in the community. A population-based spatial analysis is necessary to investigate community risk factors for ESBL-Ec occurrence. The study population was defined as individuals with ESBL-Ec isolated in Queensland, Australia, from 2010 to 2019. Choropleth maps, global Moran's index and Getis-Ord Gi* were used to describe ESBL-Ec distribution and identify hot spots. Multivariable Poisson regression models with or without spatially structured random effects were performed. A total of 12 786 individuals with ESBL-Ec isolate were identified. The crude incidence rate increased annually from 9.1 per 100 000 residents in 2010 to 49.8 per 100 000 residents in 2019. The geographical distribution of ESBL-Ec changed from random to clustered after 2014, suggesting presence of community-specific factors that can enhance occurrence. Hot spots were more frequently identified in Outback and Far North Queensland, future public health measures to reduce transmission should prioritise these communities. Communities with higher socioeconomic status (RR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.55-0.79, per 100 units increase) and higher proportion of residents employed in the agricultural industry (RR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.95, per 10% increase) had lower ESBL-Ec incidence. Risk factors for occurrence appear differential between remote and city settings and this should be further investigated.