Stochastic shaping of aggregator energy and reserve bids to ensure network security

Rising market participation of DER through aggregators increases the risk of network constraint violation at the distribution level. Existing approaches to network-secure DER coordination often require centralised resource management/oversight, or involve complex iterative negotiations between prosumers and the distribution service operator (DSO). In response to industry needs for readily-implementable solutions, we propose a straightforward network-secure bid curtailment approach performed by DSOs, allowing for separation of DSO and aggregator roles while factoring aggregator preferences communicated through bids. In extension to previous work, our approach directly maximises expected aggregator benefit in the market by factoring forecast market prices and bid prices into the objective. We mitigate risks of inaccurate market forecasts using a price-probabilistic stochastic program, bringing benefit to within 1% of the perfect information case in our simulations using real data. We demonstrate a 9% improvement in aggregator benefit compared to related approaches, with further gains available through real-reactive power co-optimisation.