Exploring the Impact of Visualization Design on Non-Expert Interpretation of Hurricane Forecast Path

Hurricane forecast graphics have the challenging task of communicating information about spatial and temporal uncertainty. Although forecasting accuracy has improved, the popular track forecast cone or "Cone of Uncertainty" graphic, produced by the National Hurricane Center, is poorly understood by the general public. A better understanding of the forecast can potentially assist in timely decisions and life-saving actions. This study evaluates the impact of visualization design, tropical cyclone characteristics, subjective numeracy, and subjective graphicacy on visual attention to and user interpretation of hurricane forecast graphics. Forty-three non-expert participants completed forecast path estimates for nine tropical cyclones, comparing their responses when using the National Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty graphic and two alternative forecast visualizations. Results show that design modifications did not alter visual attention patterns or improve interpretations. Results also indicate that subjective numeracy, subjective graphicacy, and tropical cyclone characteristics, in combination, influence estimates of hurricane forecast tracks. The findings from this study inform redesign efforts of hurricane risk communication products.