Impact of Environmental Backgrounds on Atmospheric Monitoring of Nuclear Explosions

Radionuclide monitoring for nuclear explosions includes measuring radioactive aerosol and noble gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty has made such measurements for decades, revealing much about how atmospheric radioactivity impacts the sensitivity of the network. For example, civilian emissions of radioiodine make a substantial regional impact, but a minor global impact, while civilian radioxenon emissions create major regional and complex global impacts. The impacts are strongly influenced by the minimum releases anticipated to be interesting. The original design of the IMS anticipated relatively large releases, and the current IMS network substantially meets or exceeds the sensitivity needed to detect those levels. Much lower signal levels can be motivated from historical tests. Using a release that corresponds roughly to a one-ton equivalent of fission in the atmosphere rather than the design level of one-kiloton equivalent, the network detection probabilities for 140 Ba and 131 I are quite good (~ 75%) and for 133 Xe is still considerable (~ 45%). Using measured and simulated background concentrations, various possible desired signal levels, and an innovative anomaly threshold, maps of sensitivity and a station ranking are developed for IMS radionuclide stations. These provide a strong motivation for additional experimentation to learn about sources and the potential plusses of new technology.