Situation Analysis of Provincial Power Market Based on System Dynamics Simulation

Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, with the expansion of the scope of power market-oriented reform and the increase in uncertainty of social, political, and economic factors outside the market, the market environment is becoming more and more complex, and it is more difficult to analyze and control the market situation. From a macro perspective, overall modeling for the power transmission link between the generation side and the consumption side of the provincial power market is built, in which a variety of real-time elements or scenarios such as renewable energy power generation growth, carbon emission quota, coal shortage, and dual control system of total energy consumption and energy intensity are considered. The system dynamics tools are used for simulation, and the medium and long-term operation trends of the market are analyzed. In the case studies, the actual situation of the Jiangsu power market is used as background. The trend of the power market situation under the basic scenario is analyzed, and the sensitivity analysis is carried out for three factors: coal supply growth rate, carbon emission caps, and electricity demand growth rate. It is shown that diversified macro factors inside and outside the market will affect the balance of the market operation situation to varying degrees, making the key operation indicators of the market deviate from the existing stable state.