Bayesian updating with adaptive, uncertainty-informed subset simulations: High-fidelity updating with multiple observations

Reliability Engineering & System Safety(2023)

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摘要
•BUS-SSAK, a deep integration of adaptive Kriging-based subset simulation and Bayesian updating with structural reliability (BUS), is proposed.•Conditional Acceptance Rate Curve (CARC) and Dynamic Learning Function (DLF) are introduced.•CARC and DLF facilitate precise identification of intermediate failure thresholds in subset simulation with limited realizations.•BUS-SSAK enables Bayesian updating of complex, computationally demanding models.
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关键词
Bayesian updating,Bayesian Inference,Calibration,Reliability Analysis,Kriging,Markov Chain Monte Carlo,Subset simulation
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