An Undetectable Postoperative Calcitonin Level Is Associated with Long-Term Disease-Free Survival in Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma: Results of a Retrospective Cohort Study.

Calcitonin measurement is widely used in the diagnosis, prognosis, and follow-up of patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). The prognostic value of undetectable postoperative calcitonin (POCal) in long-term disease outcomes remains uncertain. The aim of this study is to evaluate POCal as a prognostic marker for long-term MTC disease status. A retrospective cohort study was carried out. We collected data from the medical records of patients with MTC attending two tertiary teaching hospitals. Patients were divided according to POCal into two groups: undetectable (below the detection limit) or detectable. The outcome was determined at the last medical visit and defined as disease free (undetectable calcitonin and no evidence of disease on imaging), persistent disease (detectable calcitonin with or without structural disease), or disease-related death. Three hundred thirty-four MTC patients were included in the study. The mean age at diagnosis was 41.1 ± 18.6 years; 202 patients (60.5%) were women; and 167 patients (50.0%) had sporadic MTC. The median tumor size was 2.0 cm (1.1-3.5 cm); 164 patients (49.1%) had lymph node metastasis and 63 patients (18.9%) had distant metastasis. At the first postoperative evaluation (3-6 months after surgery), 141 patients had undetectable POCal (mean age = 37.9 years, 70.9% women, median tumor size 1.5 cm [0.7-2.5 cm]; 28 [19.9%] had lymph node metastasis and none had distant metastasis). After a median follow-up of 7.7 years (2.1-13.2 years), 127 (90.1%) of these patients were free of disease, whereas 14 (9.9%) had persistent biochemical disease with stable calcitonin levels. No patient with undetectable POCal died of the disease. In the detectable POCal group (mean age = 42.9 years, 52.8% women, median tumor size 3.0 cm [1.8-4.2 cm]; 136 [70.5%] had lymph node metastasis and 63 [32.6%] had distant metastasis), 18 (9.2%) patients achieved disease-free status, 51 (26.6%) had biochemical disease, and 61 (31.6%) had persistent structural disease. Sixty-three (32.6%) patients died of disease-related events. Further analysis using a multivariate model identified undetectable POCal as an independent prognostic variable for disease-free status (HR = 5.33, CI = 2.86-9.94;  < 0.001). POCal is a strong prognostic marker for long-term disease-free survival and might help define follow-up strategies for MTC patients.