A novel analytical approach for outcome prediction in newly diagnosed NSCLC based on [ 18 F]FDG PET/CT metabolic parameters, inflammatory markers, and clinical variables

Objectives To develop a novel analytical approach based on 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose ([ 18 F]FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) metabolic parameters, serum inflammatory markers, and clinical variables to improve the outcome prediction in NSCLC. Methods A total of 190 newly diagnosed NSCLC patients who underwent pretreatment [ 18 F]FDG PET/CT were retrospectively enrolled and divided into a training cohort ( n = 127) and a test cohort ( n = 63). Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the predictive values of PET metabolic parameters, inflammation markers, and clinical variables for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Based on the results of multivariate analysis, PET-based, clinical, and combined models were constructed. The predictive performance of different models was evaluated using time-dependent ROC curve analysis, Harrell concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Results The combined models incorporating SULmax, MTV, NLR, and ECOG PS demonstrated significant prognostic superiority over PET-based models, clinical models, and TNM stage in terms of both PFS (C-index: 0.813 vs. 0.786 vs. 0.776 vs. 0.678, respectively) and OS (C-index: 0.856 vs. 0.792 vs. 0.781 vs. 0.674, respectively) in the training cohort. Similar results were observed in the test cohort for PFS (C-index: 0.808 vs. 0.764 vs. 0.748 vs. 0.679, respectively) and OS (C-index: 0.836 vs. 0.785 vs. 0.726 vs. 0.660, respectively) prediction. The combined model calibrated well in two cohorts. Decision curve analysis supported the clinical utility of the combined model. Conclusions We reported a novel analytical approach combining PET metabolic information with inflammatory biomarker and clinical characteristics, which could significantly improve outcome prediction in newly diagnosed NSCLC. Key Points • The nomogram incorporating SULmax, MTV, NLR, and ECOG PS outperformed the TNM stage for outcome prediction in patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC . • The established nomogram could provide refined prognostic stratification .