Simulating productivity of dryland cotton using APSIM, climate scenario analysis, and remote sensing

•Information of cotton production and climate change impacts is extremely limited.•Systematic inquiries are used to assess how climate change affect cotton production.•Validating by field & satellite data, APSIM predict cotton lint and biomass well.•Reduced reliable yield and precipitation productivity were found in future scenarios.•Planting cotton on the most dominant soil type tended to meet higher risk than others.