Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions

European Journal of Operational Research(2023)

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摘要
•Overprecision is a ubiquitous bias in risk and decision analysis.•Several debiasing tools have been proposed but they lack a systematic comparison.•We compare three tools for debiasing overprecision and two elicitation protocols.•Auto stretching the tails with the fixed value protocol was more effective.•We provide recommendations on how to implement this debiasing strategy.
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关键词
Behavioral OR,Overconfidence,Overprecision,Judgment calibration,Expert judgment,Debiasing
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