Prediction of gastric cancer risk by a polygenic risk score of Helicobacter pylori

BACKGROUND Genetic variants of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) are involved in gastric cancer occurrence. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of H. pylori that are associated with gastric cancer have been reported. The combined effect of H. pylori SNPs on the risk of gastric cancer remains unclear. AIM To assess the performance of a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on H. pylori SNPs in predicting the risk of gastric cancer. METHODS A total of 15 gastric cancer-associated H. pylori SNPs were selected. The associations between these SNPs and gastric cancer were further validated in 1022 global strains with publicly available genome sequences. The PRS model was established based on the validated SNPs. The performance of the PRS for predicting the risk of gastric cancer was assessed in global strains using quintiles and random forest (RF) methods. The variation in the performance of the PRS among different populations of H. pylori was further examined. RESULTS Analyses of the association between selected SNPs and gastric cancer in the global dataset revealed that the risk allele frequencies of six SNPs were significantly higher in gastric cancer cases than non-gastric cancer cases. The PRS model constructed subsequently with these validated SNPs produced significantly higher scores in gastric cancer. The odds ratio (OR) value for gastric cancer gradually increased from the first to the fifth quintile of PRS, with the fifth quintile having an OR value as high as 9.76 (95% confidence interval: 5.84-16.29). The results of RF analyses indicated that the area under the curve (AUC) value for classifying gastric cancer and non-gastric cancer was 0.75, suggesting that the PRS based on H. pylori SNPs was capable of predicting the risk of gastric cancer. Assessing the performance of the PRS among different H. pylori populations demonstrated that it had good predictive power for cancer risk for hpEurope strains, with an AUC value of 0.78. CONCLUSION The PRS model based on H. pylori SNPs had a good performance for assessment of gastric cancer risk. It would be useful in the prediction of final consequences of the H. pylori infection and beneficial for the management of the infection in clinical settings.