Incremental caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano recorded in ground tilt and high-rate GNSS data, with implications for collapse dynamics and the magma system

Ground deformation during caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 was recorded in unprecedented detail on a network of real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and tilt instruments. Observations informed hazard assessments during the eruption and now yield insight into collapse dynamics and the magma system. The caldera grew in size over 78 days in a series of repeating, quasi-periodic ∼ day-long cycles. During abrupt seconds-long collapse events, fault-bounded caldera blocks subsided by meters, while the surrounding edifice moved upwards and outwards by as much as tens of centimeters. Between collapses, stations outside of the caldera moved inwards and downwards at decreasing rates, largely reversing co-collapse deformations. In total, the caldera subsided >500 m at its deepest point while the surrounding edifice subsided mostly less than 2 m chiefly in a region south of the new caldera. Ground deformation reflects magma withdrawal from the broader summit magma system and faulting processes related to collapse. Deformation cycles were caused by step-like pressurization of Kīlauea’s subcaldera magma system due to episodic, stick-slip roof rock subsidence, followed by gradual pressure reduction as magma continued to drain from the summit, stressing faults and leading to subsequent collapses. A model of piston-like subsidence implies that larger collapses increased pressure in a compressible subcaldera magma reservoir by several MPa, driving flow to the rift through a relatively wide conduit. Collapses did not fully recover precollapse pressure loss in the reservoir, and excess pressure driving the eruption was very low; the eruption was thus tenuously sustained by collapses. Important open questions remain about the relation between caldera floor subsidence and ground deformation, the role of other magma storage zones, and the interplay of summit and rift processes in controlling the evolution of the eruption.