The Forecast of the Temperature Regime of a Northern Railway Embankment in Tundra Near Hanovey Station

This article presents the results of field study near a Northern Railway embankment (Hanovey station) in a field work area of the Geocryology Department (Moscow State University), where we performed cone penetration tests, measured the thickness of the active layer and soil temperatures, monitored settlement of the embankment, and performed laboratory tests. A mathematical model was compiled in the Qfrost program based on these data taking the unevenness of the snow cover in the study area into account. Calculations of the temperature regime of the embankment until 2050 taking climate change into account (according to the RCP 4.5 scenario), showed that the thickness of the talik at the embankment will increase by 40% in 30 years and without taking this factor into account, by 17%. This article also discusses the features of the position and structure of the embankment, as well as the composition and properties of frozen soils, which significantly affect the stability of the embankment.