Evaluating the influences of urban expansion on multiple ecosystem services in drylands

Context Effectively estimating the influences of urban expansion on multiple ecosystem services (ESs) is of great importance for improving urban planning in drylands. However, there are some shortcomings in the existing urban expansion models, which lead to great uncertainties in the assessment of the influences of urban expansion on multiple ESs. Objectives This study sought to effectively estimate the influences of urban expansion on multiple ESs in drylands. Methods We combined the land use scenario dynamics-urban model and ES models to estimate the influences of urban expansion on habitat quality, food production, water retention, air quality regulation, sand fixation, and aesthetics. Results The results showed that (1) our method can effectively evaluate the influences of urban expansion on multiple ESs in drylands, and the accuracy increased by more than 20% on average. (2) Under the impacts of future urban expansion, the annual average loss per unit area of habitat quality, food production, water retention, air quality regulation, sand fixation, and aesthetics will increase. (3) Future urban expansion will occupy more cropland and grassland, which will be the main reason for the intensified degradation of multiple ESs. Conclusions We suggest that the local government should focus on protecting key ecosystems, especially grasslands, from urban expansion to mitigate the potential influences on multiple ESs in drylands.