Short-term prognostic factors for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is the abrupt exacerbation of declined hepatic function in patients with chronic liver disease. AIM To explore the independent predictors of short-term prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related ACLF and to establish a predictive short-term prognosis model for HBV-related ACLF. METHODS From January 2016 to December 2019, 207 patients with HBV-related ACLF attending the 910th Hospital of Chinese People's Liberation Army were continuously included in this retrospective study. Patients were stratified based on their survival status 3 mo after diagnosis. Information was collected regarding gender and age; coagulation function in terms of prothrombin time and international normalized ratio (INR); hematological profile in terms of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet count (PLT); blood biochemistry in terms of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin (Tbil), albumin, cholinesterase, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, blood glucose, and sodium (Na); tumor markers including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and Golgi protein 73 (GP73); virological indicators including HBV-DNA, HBsAg, HBeAg, Anti-HBe, and Anti-HBc; and complications including hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, spontaneous peritonitis, gastrointestinal bleeding, and pulmonary infection. RESULTS There were 157 and 50 patients in the survival and death categories, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed significant differences in age, PLT, Tbil, BUN, NLR, HBsAg, AFP, GP73, INR, stage of liver failure, classification of liver failure, and incidence of complications (pulmonary infection, hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding) between the two groups (P < 0.05). GP73 [hazard ratio (HR): 1.009, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.005-1.013, P = 0.000], middle stage of liver failure (HR: 5.056, 95%CI: 1.792-14.269, P = 0.002), late stage of liver failure (HR: 22.335, 95%CI: 8.544-58.388, P = 0.000), pulmonary infection (HR: 2.056, 95%CI: 1.145-3.690, P = 0.016), hepatorenal syndrome (HR: 6.847, 95%CI: 1.930-24.291, P = 0.003), and HBsAg (HR: 0.690, 95%CI: 0.524-0.908, P = 0.008) were independent risk factors for short-term prognosis in patients with HBV-related ACLF. Following binary logistics regression analysis, we arrived at the following formula for predicting short-term prognosis: Logit(P) = Ln(P/1-P) = 0.013 x (GP73 ng/mL) + 1.907 x (middle stage of liver failure) + 4.146 x (late stage of liver failure) + 0.734 x (pulmonary infection) + 22.320 x (hepatorenal syndrome) - 0.529 x (HBsAg) - 5.224. The predictive efficacy of the GP73-ACLF score was significantly better than that of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and MELD-Na score models (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION The stage of liver failure, presence of GP73, pulmonary infection, hepatorenal syndrome, and HBsAg are independent predictors of short-term prognosis in patients with HBV-related ACLF, and the GP73-ACLF model has good predictive value among these patients.