New challenges of the Belt and Road Initiative under China's “3060” carbon target

Under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China and BRI countries mutually benefited from the trade in the economy. Meanwhile, considerable CO2 emissions were embodied in the trade, possibly putting pressure on China's "3060" target of peaking CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Yet less is known about the heterogeneous impacts of BRI-induced trade on China, especially at the provincial level. This study quantifies the provincial mismatch of CO2 emissions and economic benefits induced by BRI countries' final demand using the latest linked multiregional input-output model. We found that provinces in China paid around 0.24-7.01 Mt embodied CO2 emissions to obtain per unit billion USD dollars in fulfilling BRI countries' final demand. Regarding the sectoral patterns, embodied CO2 emissions of electricity, gas, and water sector accounted for the largest proportion (more than 50%) for 60% of provinces. Other services sector greatly contributed to each province's economic benefits. We also found that only 15.2% of these embodied CO2 emissions could be mitigated even though upgrading the technology levels of all sectors in backward provinces to China's average level. This indicated that measures relying on the current technology are far from enough for achieving the carbon targets. Therefore, it is urgent to deepen the technology innovation and reform of emission sectors in the short term. In the long run, seeking new long-term pathways of emission reduction, such as optimizing trade structure, is conducive to promoting the sustainable development of BRI and the "3060" realization.