Predictive Value of Preoperative Serum AFP, CEA, and CA19-9 Levels in Patients with Single Small Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Retrospective Study

Purpose: This study aimed to explore the relationship between the tumor marker score (TMS) and the postoperative recurrence of single small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients and Methods: A total of 409 patients with one resectable HCC with a diameter of 3 cm or less who visited Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute & Hospital from January 2010 to December 2014 were included in this study. Their alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels were classified into low and high groups using X-tile software. Each patients' TMS was calculated as the sum of each tumor marker (low = 0; high = 1). Results: A total of 142 patients were classified as TMS0, 171 as TMS1, and 96 as TMS2. Kaplan-Meier analysis illustrated that TMS could divide the patients into groups with remarkably different prognoses, and the patients with high TMS had worse recurrence-free survival (RFS) than those with low TMS. Multivariate analysis showed that TMS, age, and HBeAg positive were the independent predictors of RFS rate. Subgroup analysis revealed that high TMS was a stable risk factor relative to TMS0. Receiver operating curves showed that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under curve (AUC) values of TMS were 0.698, 0.662, and 0.673, respectively. The AUC of TMS was higher than that of other common prognostic models in time-dependent receiver operating curve. Conclusion: TMS was an independent prognostic factor for the postoperative recurrence of a single small HCC and can provide a well-discriminated risk stratification, thus contributing to prognostic prediction and adjuvant therapeutic development.