AST·MLR index and operation injury condition are novel prognostic predictor for the prediction of survival in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases undergoing surgical resection

Background The prognostic values of preoperative aspartate aminotransferase (AST), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), AST·MLR index (AMLRI) and operation injury condition in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) remains unclear. This retrospective study assessed the relationship between these markers, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) in CRLM patients undergoing resection. Methods AMLRI was defined as AST × MLR. Operation injury condition was defined according to operation time and blood loss. Cox regression analyses were used to identify risk factors and to develop nomograms. C-indexes, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (time-ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to assess the models. Results A total of 379 patients were enrolled. The optimal cut-off value of the AMLRI was 3.33. In the multivariable analysis, AMLRI > 3.33 (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.162, p = 0.002) and serious operation injury condition (HR = 1.539, p = 0.012) were predictive for unfavourable OS, and AMLRI > 3.33 (HR = 1.462, p = 0.021) was predictive for unfavourable PFS. The nomograms were superior to Fong’s Clinical Risk Score (CRS) according to the C-indexes (PFS: 0.682 vs. 0.600; OS: 0.730 vs. 0.586) and time-ROCs. Conclusions Preoperative AMLRI and operation injury condition are easily accessible predictors for prognosis. The nomograms performed better than CRS for the prediction of recurrence and survival.