Changes in Urban Growth Patterns in Busan Metropolitan City, Korea: Population and Urbanized Areas

Cities have exhibited spatial patterns of expansion or compacting in the process of economic and population growth. South Korea is a well-known example of a country that has experienced rapid economic growth and urbanization. This study's target area, Busan Metropolitan City (BMC), experienced urban growth but, over the past 20 years, underwent economic and population stagnation. How will urban growth patterns change if economic and population growth stagnates? This study aimed to identify changes in urban growth patterns using population and urbanized areas in BMC, South Korea, from 1980 to 2020. It uses Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, Bachi's Index and the Standard Deviational Ellipse, and Social Network Analysis to identify population concentration, changes in centrality, inland expansion of urbanized land, and centrality of migration. The results showed that (1) BMC's urban growth pattern extended outward, despite population and economic stagnation since 2000; (2) population and economic stagnation over the next 20 years expanded population polarization in the city's urban center and outskirts; (3) the built-up area expanded in all directions for 40 years-the centrality of the urbanized area was seen in and around the urban center in 1980 but moved northeast in 2020; and (4) since 2000, when population stagnation first emerged, the centrality of the population in migration has been more evident in the outskirts. These results suggest that if there is no sustainable urban planning and development strategy when growth is stagnant, expansionary urban growth will continue, and cities will reach the growth limit.