A geospatial approach to identifying biophysically suitable areas for fruit and vegetable production in the United States

In the United States, the production of many fruits and vegetables (F&Vs) is concentrated in a few key regions of the country, and it may not be possible to maintain or increase output from these areas due to natural resource constraints and climate change. Rather, developing new and more geographically diverse production systems may be necessary to meet food needs and adapt to changing conditions. However, there is currently a limited understanding of the availability and location of suitable land where future production could occur. In this project, we developed geospatial models to identify and quantify land suitable for producing F&V crops across the contiguous United States based on biophysical constraints. Suitability was based on key criteria related to land cover and use, topography, soil properties, and climate. We found tremendous potential to expand F&V production at the national level, identifying 333 million hectares of suitable land, 47% of which is currently used for agriculture. Suitable land to produce most F&Vs exists across the United States, indicating that there is significant potential to geographically diversify production in the future, though tropical and sub-tropical fruits are restricted to the southern areas of the country. These results provide a starting point for identifying opportunities to expand F&V production, reduce geographic concentration, and establish new supply chains.