Assessing future runoff changes with different potential evapotranspiration inputs based on multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections

•Xinanjiang model performed well in runoff simulation in North Johnstone catchment.•Runoff projected with different ETp inputs showed similar changes in the future.•Runoff in spring and winter would decrease in the future.•GCMs and RCPs were major factors resulting in uncertainty in runoff projections.