Dynamics of creeping landslides controlled by inelastic hydro-mechanical couplings

Slow-moving landslides affect proximal infrastructures and communities, often causing extensive economic loss. While many of these landslides exhibit slow and episodic sliding for decades or more, they sometimes accelerate rapidly and fail catastrophically. Although it is known that the landslide dynamics are controlled by hydro -mechanical processes, few analytical models enable a versatile incorporation of the inelastic behavior of the shear zone materials, thus hindering an accurate quantification of how their properties modulate the magnitude and rate of coupled fluid flow and landslide motion. To address this problem, we develop a simulation framework incorporating rainfall-induced, deformation-mediated pore-water pressure transients at the base of active landslides. The framework involves the computation of two sequential diffusion processes, one within an upper rigid-porous landslide block, and another within the inelastic shear zone. Although the framework can be linked to any elastoplastic constitutive laws, here we model landslide motion through an elastic-perfectly plastic fric-tional model, which enables us to account for standard properties of earthen materials such as elastic moduli, friction angle, dilation angle, and hydraulic conductivity. Numerical case studies relevant to slow-moving landslides in the California Coast Ranges show that the proposed formulation captures different temporal pat-terns of movement induced by precipitation. In each of the case, we achieved a relatively accurate match be-tween data and simulations by incorporating positive dilation coefficients, which leads to spontaneous generation of negative excess pore-water pressure and self-regulating motion. Conversely, simulations with no dilation (hence, reflecting the approach of critical state) produce sharp acceleration, typical of catastrophic runaway acceleration. Our findings encourage the use of the proposed framework in conjunction with consti-tutive laws tailored to site-specific geomaterial properties and data availability, thus favoring a versatile rep-resentation of the variety of creeping landslide trends observed in nature.