A regional eco-compensation assessment framework for blue water scarcity based on the spatial effects of socio-economic factors

The conflicts between the utilization and conservation of water resources induced by blue water scarcity have become increasingly prominent. Aiming to balance the ecological and socio-economic benefits derived from blue water resources, this study proposed a regional eco-compensation assessment framework. Based on the blue water budget (deficit or surplus), the formulae for calculating the eco-compensation amount were developed. The blue water scarcity index and its explanatory variables were designed. Considering the spatial dependence of blue water scarcity, the spatial lag model was adopted to perform the spatial econometric analysis. The panel data in 21 prefecture-level cities of Guangdong Province in China from 2009 to 2018 was used for the case study. The findings suggested that blue water scarcity presented significant spillover effects. The precipitation had significantly negative total effects on blue water scarcity, while GDP per capita, population density and water use intensity exhibited significantly positive total effects. Thereupon, a modified coefficient was incorporated to adjust the eco-compensation amount to local condition, so as to achieve targeted restriction and advocate a more sustainable consumption pattern. We believe that the eco-compensation could serve as a potential tool for regional blue water management and contribute to the implementation of sustainable development goals.