Modeling equatorial F ‐region ionospheric instability using a regional ionospheric irregularity model and WAM‐IPE

This paper uses a regional simulation of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial ionosphere together with a global atmosphere/ionosphere/plasmasphere GCM (WAM-IPE) to forecast irregularities associated with equatorial spread F (ESF) for 1-2 hr after sunset. First, the regional simulation is initialized and forced using ionosphere state parameters derived from campaign data from the Jicamarca Radio Observatory and from empirical models. The irregularities produced by these simulations are found to be quantitatively similar to those observed. Next, the aforementioned state parameters are replaced with parameters from WAM-IPE, and the resulting departures between the simulated and observed irregularities are noted. In one of five cases, the forecast failed to accurately predict ESF irregularities due to the late reversal of the zonal thermospheric winds. In four of five cases, significant differences between the observed and predicted prereversal enhancement (PRE) of the background vertical drifts resulted in degraded forecast accuracy. This highlights the need for improved PRE forecasting in the global-scale model.