Health consequences of obesity and projected future obesity health burden in China

Objective This study examined the effects of overweight/obesity on mortality and morbidity outcomes and the disparities, time trends, and projected future obesity health burden in China. Methods Cohort studies that were conducted in China and published in English or Chinese between January 1, 1995, and July 31, 2021, were systematically searched. This study focused on overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, metabolic syndrome, cancers, and chronic kidney disease. Results A total of 31 cohorts and 50 cohort studies reporting on mortality (n = 20) and morbidities (n = 30) associated with obesity met study inclusion criteria. Overall, BMI was nonlinearly (U-shaped) associated with all-cause mortality and linearly associated with risks of T2DM, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, cancer, metabolic syndrome, and chronic kidney disease. In 2018, among adults, the prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension, and T2DM was 51.2%, 27.5%, and 12.4%, respectively. Their future projected prevalence would be 70.5%, 35.4%, and 18.5% in 2030, respectively. The projected number of adults having these conditions would be 810.65 million, 416.47 million, and 217.64 million, respectively. The urban-rural disparity in overweight/obesity prevalence was projected to shrink and then reverse over time. Conclusions The current health burden of obesity in China is high and it will sharply increase in coming years and affect population groups differently. China needs to implement vigorous interventions for obesity prevention and treatment.