Decadal and Intra-annual Variability of the Indian Ocean Freshwater Budget

Abstract The global freshwater cycle is intensifying; wet regions are prone to more rainfall, whilst dry regions experience more drought. Indian Ocean rim countries are especially vulnerable to these changes but its oceanic freshwater budget – which records the basin-wide balance between evaporation, precipitation, and runoff – has only been quantified at three points in time (1987, 2002, 2009). Due to this paucity of observations and large model biases, we cannot yet be sure how the Indian Ocean’s freshwater cycle has responded to climate change, nor by how much it varies at seasonal and monthly time scales. To bridge this gap, we estimate the magnitude and variability of the Indian Ocean’s freshwater budget using monthly-varying oceanic data from May 2016 through April 2018. Freshwater converged into the basin with a mean rate and standard error of 0.35±0.07 Sv, indicating that basin-wide air-sea fluxes are net evaporative. This balance is maintained by salty waters leaving the basin via the Agulhas Current and fresher waters entering northward across the southern boundary and via the Indonesian Throughflow. For the first time, we quantify seasonal and monthly variability in Indian Ocean freshwater convergence to find amplitudes of 0.33 and 0.16 Sv, respectively, where monthly changes reflect variability in oceanic, rather than air-sea, fluxes. Compared with the range of previous estimates plus independent measurements from a reanalysis product, we conclude that the Indian Ocean has remained net evaporative since the 1980s, in contrast to long-term changes in its heat budget. When disentangling anthropogenic-driven changes, these observations of decadal and intra-annual natural variability should be taken into account.