Recycling schemes and supporting policies modeling for photovoltaic modules considering heterogeneous risks

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems are expected to play an indispensable role in the future power supply towards the carbon-neutrality target in China. However, without appropriate practices and systems being set up for recycling, recovering, and reusing, tremendous waste materials would occupy land space and pollute environment, posing threats to human health. Effective management of End-of-Life (EoL) PV modules serves a critical part for sustainable development of solar PV power. Here, we developed a complex network model considering incomplete and imperfect information to simulate its scheme and policies for PV module recycling. Three types of recycling modes and three policy scenarios were simulated and analyzed, and sensitivity analyses of risk levels, PV manufacturing and recycling costs are conducted for the robustness test. Based on the current status of recycling technology, the policy of mandatory recycling will impose additional costs and negatively impact the PV system adoption, while the subsidy policies can partially offset such negative impacts. Subsidies targeted at either recycled capacity of PV modules or electricity generated from PV power during its life time show similar effects. In addition, the subsidy policies also bring benefits in enhancing the robustness of the whole PV market. The fluctuation caused by unsystematic risks including project relocation, uncertainties in land contracts, PV module replacement, etc., will also be smoothed.