Trajectories to high income: Comparing the growth dynamics in China, South Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models

•The most significant common denominator in the economic growth of Japan, South Korea and China was capable bureaucracy and a developmental state that prioritized economic growth via export- and investment-led growth.•The pattern of structural breaks in Japan, South Korea, and China has been broadly similar, with China following in South Korea's footsteps by about 25 to 30 years and Japan's footsteps by about 50 to 55 years.•The GDP growth and capital–labor ratio moved together in a positive long-run relationship in Japan, South Korea and China.•China experienced growth based on total factor productivity (TFP) gains at a much earlier stage in its development path than South Korea.•At a broader level, our analysis provides cautious grounds for optimism about China's prospects for a smooth and quick transition to high income.