The periodicity and initial evolution of micro-mobility systems: a case study of the docked bike-sharing system in New York City, USA

This study developed an analytical framework that aims at understanding the evolutionary processes of a micro-mobility system (for example, bike-sharing), which offers insights into the transforming nature of a city transport system. Firstly, the framework applied a Gaussian Mixture Model to examine the long-term fluctuations of travel demands. Secondly, it investigated the growth trajectories of service points via exponential and logistic growth models. Cumulative connections with other points represented the growth of a service location. An eigendecomposition approach was used to uncover the hidden structures behind the growth curves. This framework was applied in the docked bike-sharing program in New York City, USA. The results show that there existed periodic patterns of travel demands in the long term. The majority of stations grew rapidly after they began to operate. However, the temporal signatures of stations’ growth displayed some variations across different locations. This proposed workflow can be employed in other cities with similar context to better investigate how micro-mobility systems evolve.