Estimating Vehicle Ownership and Use in Beijing Before the License-Plate Lottery

Developing countries with fast-growing economies have experienced rapidly increasing vehicle ownership, rates of utilization similar to those of developed countries, and worrisome levels of pollution from private transportation. This is especially true in large metropolitan areas in China, where a significant percentage of the population can now afford to own a private vehicle and to use it to satisfy household mobility needs. For this study, we proposed an econometric approach to jointly model private car ownership and use patterns, and estimated greenhouse gas emissions based on data collected in Beijing prior to the implementation of the license-plate lottery policy. Our analysis derived major market indicators; the elasticity of demand for cars with respect to income was estimated to be 0.48, while the elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) to fuel price was -0.17. Among the effects considered, it was found that family income and the ownership of a transit pass significantly affect vehicle ownership, increasing fuel costs reduce VKT, and the density of bus and metro stops has a small influence on both vehicle ownership and use.