Bacterial Succession in Microbial Biofilm as a Potential Indicator for Postmortem Submersion Interval Estimation

Bacteria acts as the main decomposer during the process of biodegradation by microbial communities in the ecosystem. Numerous studies have revealed the bacterial succession patterns during carcass decomposition in the terrestrial setting. The machine learning algorithm-generated models based on such temporal succession patterns have been developed for the postmortem interval (PMI) estimation. However, the bacterial succession that occurs on decomposing carcasses in the aquatic environment is poorly understood. In the forensic practice, the postmortem submersion interval (PMSI), which approximately equals to the PMI in most of the common drowning cases, has long been problematic to determine. In the present study, bacterial successions in the epinecrotic biofilm samples collected from the decomposing swine cadavers submerged in water were analyzed by sequencing the variable region 4 (V4) of 16S rDNA. The succession patterns between the repeated experimental settings were repeatable. Using the machine learning algorithm for establishing random forest (RF) models, the microbial community succession patterns in the epinecrotic biofilm samples taken during the 56-day winter trial and 21-day summer trial were determined to be used as the PMSI predictors with the mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.87 +/- 2.48 ADD (approximate to 1.3 day) and 20.59 +/- 4.89 ADD (approximate to 0.7 day), respectively. Significant differences were observed between the seasons and between the substrates. The data presented in this research suggested that the influences of the environmental factors and the aquatic bacterioplankton on succession patterns of the biofilm bacteria were of great significance. The related mechanisms of such influence need to be further studied and clarified in depth to consider epinecrotic biofilm as a reliable predictor in the forensic investigations.